Sep 01, 2022

AFL

A highly unhelpful guide to AFL Finals Week One

28 Comments

The only guide to the round that admits it’s completely unhelpful. What it lacks in insight, it makes up for with wild theories and detours onto unrelated topics.

It’s your unhelpful guide to AFL Finals Week One.

Thursday

Brisbane vs. Richmond (G) 7:20pm Seven/Fox

Say goodbye to everyone for the next four weeks, because the finals are here, the most wonderful time of the year.

It’s the time of the year when you can say to your child ‘sorry, we’re moving your birthday to October, and stop crying.’

Seven top teams and the Western Bulldogs will compete for the premiership, and we begin in Brisbane and with a finals eve scandal.

The scandal is that the returning from injury Dustin Martin, was filmed groping an exotic dancer a few years ago and now the footage has emerged.

It’s always the people you least expect.

It’s apparently from 2017, which is fine, it was a different time back then.

Personally, I’m ok with groping, as long as it’s done in a classy, consensual manner.

I’m not sure if that was the case here but treating women like normal human beings is a bar many blokes find a difficult one to jump, especially athletes, which is weird as you’d think they’d be good at jumping. 

The timing of the release of the footage is interesting, almost like a political campaign tactic designed to knock an opponent off balance before they get any momentum.

What an exciting development. We may soon get scandals ahead of every final, combining every football fans two favourite things.

Martin is returning despite being only 80 per cent fit, which is the best new the Lions have had recently.

Brisbane are coming off a match where they got belted by the Demons, had Cam Rayner suspended, and their captain Dayne Zorko had to spend the next week apologising to anyone who would listen, which wasn’t that many people.

This is not ideal preparation ahead of facing a team that has won its past four matches and ran all over you early in the year, despite being down 36-points at half-time.

The difference between the two sides is that when the pressure is on, Tom Lynch is one of the best in the game, while Brisbane fans have to proactively put up ‘missing’ posters for their key forwards.

The great thing about football is this can always be turned around, but in this case, I can’t see it happening, I’m tipping Richmond.

Friday

Melbourne vs. Sydney (MCG) 7:50pm Seven/Fox

If you’re an idiotic Demons nuffy like me, a person who values your Football Club’s achievements more than any of your own, playing the Swans in the first week terrifies you.

I was there in round twelve when the Swans, sans Buddy Franklin, out pressured the Demons and made them look as impotent as a man that wears a hat everywhere despite it going out of fashion decades ago.

My intense analysis of that game identified a weakness in the Demons gameplan, their decision to basically stop scoring after half time.

This to me seems to be something the Demons should consider not doing in this game.

Personally, my game plan would be for any team in these finals: 

·      Kick lots of goals;

·      Kick them in each and every quarter;

·      Never stop kicking goals;

·      Limit the opposition to less goals than you; and

·      Have more points than the other team when that last siren goes.

These are simple points, but teams forget them all the time.

Melbourne’s forward line has been its weakness all season, and while Brisbane helped them out by pushing their defence up the field so the Demons could run into an empty forward fifty repeatedly, it’s unlikely the Swans will be so helpful.

The Swans are certainly in good form, but it’s harder to read than it appears.

They’ve won seven games in a row, but it’s a mixed bag. Wins over the Bulldogs, Fremantle and Collingwood are in there, but so are victories over North, the Giants, and St Kilda.

And against St Kilda they struggled.

Plus, they lost to Essendon before that which is never a good sign for anyone.

But this is just wishful thinking from me, I think the Swans are going to get up, or at least I’m hoping my tipping them will jinx them, which works more often than you’d think.

Saturday

Geelong vs. Collingwood (MCG) 4:35pm Seven/Fox

Collingwood travels to Geelong’s home ground for this enormous match-up, with both sides in great form.

The Pies have won 12 out of their last 13, which is good, but the Cats have won 13 out of their last 13, which my maths suggest is better.

Geelong of course are old, and like all old people, they probably spent the week worrying about parking at the game instead of focusing on their opponent.

But they’re also the best team at the moment by some margin. Collingwood are famous for winning the close ones, so the Cats manage that by often not letting the game get close. Clever.

Collingwood did get close back in Round 3, but lost, but that was a different Pies outfit.

Under Craig McRae, Collingwood has gone from being a source of joy for me to a terrifying force.

I guess all those black and white flags being flown from cars after a Pies win just reminds me too much of an ISIS convoy.

I never thought I’d say this but bring Eddie back.

While the Pies turnaround has been impressive, Geelong’s significant improvement this season has been less noticeable, but additions like Tyson Stengle have made a huge difference.

Stengle is a great example of how you can turn things around through hard work.

That example makes me uncomfortable. I prefer to blame others for my problems.

I’m tipping the Cats.

Fremantle vs. Western Bulldogs (OS) 8:10pm Seven/Fox

I hope the Western Bulldogs sent flowers to Carlton after round 23 because only the supreme efforts of the Blues got the Doggies into the finals.

But the Doggies know that once you’re on the finals starting grid, it’s a whole new race.

Fremantle would be less pleased, the Blues implosion cost them a top-four spot.

The Dockers haven’t been to the finals in seven years, meaning there are kids in primary school that are experiencing this for the first time.

These sides met as recently as Round 21, with the Dockers winning at Marvel Stadium.

Part of the Bulldogs problem will be their defence, which less tries to stop people and more waves at them as they pass by.

Fremantle doesn’t have that problem, but they peaked in the middle of the season, which is not the best timing.

Both teams announced key outs for this game, with the definition of dodgy hamstrings, Nat Fyfe out and Simpsons aficionado Tom Liberatore also unable to play.

Bailey Smith, the only man to combine a cocaine/headbutting suspension, is likely to play despite training away from the main team this week.

I can’t see the Dockers losing this at home, but then I remind myself that this is the Dockers, so of course, it’s highly likely.

But I’m going to tip Freo and ride the wave of emotion that follows.

You can help support me in producing this ridiculous nonsense I churn out on a regular basis. Find out more here: https://titusoreily.com/support-titus

My new podcast Sports Bizarre is out now: https://sportsbizarre.com/ 

COMMENTS

Libbashamstrung

Sep 01, 2022

"Top 7 teams and Western Bulldogs" Ouch!

Stevo

Sep 01, 2022

"I guess all those black and white flags being flown from cars after a Pies win just reminds me too much of an ISIS convoy." must be the line of the year. Gold.

Gibbo

Sep 01, 2022

Titus. Post Dees game - please ask the umpires not to join in on your team song. We can handle fraud - it's their joy that annoys. We remember 2016.

Aitch

Sep 01, 2022

The Jon Spencer Blues Implosion. Great name for a band!

Stantheman

Sep 01, 2022

The beginning of a Collingwood 3peat.

bloke from the outer

Sep 01, 2022

Stan - I assume you're counting the first game of next year in the 3 games in a row your blokes are about to lose?

Blue No More

Sep 01, 2022

But for the combined last 2 minutes of our last 2 games Carlton would have made the finals, and missing out to the Doggies by 0.6 percent only made it even crueler. And then our AFLW team, with the best of its midfield transferred to other teams to build an 18 team competition, got steamrollered by the Pies.
But the silver lining is no more AFL game anxiety and nothing to look forward to other than Collingwood losing.... by the way the Blues VFL team thrashed the Pies, leading from the first bounce to the final siren with Durden and Motlop contributing and they're now in the semi-finals.

Full Moon Over Nunawading

Sep 01, 2022

FRE vs WB

Have just made a quick calculation,
And just reached this evaluation:
Freo's hopes are afloat
On a leaky old boat
Whose next port is Elimination.

Stantheman

Sep 01, 2022

Hey girly guy from the outer.
I thought yoy would know what a 3peat was as you did it with 3rd grade

Nobleoz

Sep 01, 2022

"as impotent as a man who wears a hat everywhere". I've seen that man on the Cheap Seats. Wait, isn't that.........!!!!!

Con Cushion

Sep 01, 2022

Turn it up Titus ... I've just been on a fishing holiday; caught a Groper & crazily enough it looked a bit like Dusty! Con.

Chris Mathieson

Sep 01, 2022

"My intense analysis of that game identified a weakness in the Demons gameplan, their decision to basically stop scoring after half time."

It seems so obvious

Saint Peter

Sep 01, 2022

I can't believe it. St.Kilda are not in the finals (who'd of thought that would happen), and Titus still manages to put them in this article & be derogatory about them once again. Anyway looking forward to the draft to see how many robots we can select. You don't need skill or football smarts or leadership skills at St.Kilda to get a game just do whatever the coach says & you are in. I must say I love September - weather is great so you can sit back & relax & watch other teams supporters worry themselves sick.
I can't believe Scott Pendlebury actually thinks non-collingwood footy fans have Collingwood as their 2nd team. "Tell him he's dreaming".

Julieanne Bonnici

Sep 01, 2022

Oh Titus how dare you!
As a Swans fan I was quietly confident for Friday night and now you've gone and tipped us - absolutely no chance now.
I hate you're sneaky plan.....

Barraman

Sep 01, 2022

The headline says 'AFL Finals'...who is St Kilda and what does AFLW mean?

Running Dog

Sep 01, 2022

Sure glad you're "ok with groping, as long as it’s done in a classy, consensual manner." Because... isn't that what happens at a strip club? Not that I'd know. I thought 'lap dance' described a person's efforts to prevent zorko-ing their keyboard with spilt coffee. And also, thanks for answering Stephen Sondheim's eternal question- does anyone still wear a hat?

Full Moon Over Nunawading- I like where your analysis perthed. I mean, berthed.

The g train

Sep 01, 2022

“Say goodbye to everyone for the next four weeks, because the finals are here, the most wonderful time of the year.” Also the most nerve-racking, IF you’re team is part of it. Mid season, when StK were raging unstoppable premiership favourites—we, their supporters, were anxious beyond reckoning. Now, that familiar and reliable haze of pain and misery, and the affirmation of false hope, gives us a contented comfort. So we can just simply enjoy the footy ahead, stress free.

Brian

Sep 01, 2022

What a great game tonight. How good is the football this year.

Go the Swans tomorrow against the Dees

Basuto

Sep 01, 2022

Agreed Brain. Amazing game. Hope it's a taste of things to come.

Basuto

Sep 01, 2022

"Brian"!

Persia

Sep 01, 2022

Nice of that karma bus to run over Richmond.

Mac Hawk

Sep 01, 2022

It was a point...well done Fitzroy...and sometimes we wonder whose side that big goose plays for...or what happened to those neurons during his growth spurt...and Lynch capping off his season by a massive choke
Cracker of a game...and wer'nt the little melanoma advantsged fellas terrific!!!

Frustrated Tiger

Sep 02, 2022

The difference between the two sides is that when the pressure is on, Tom Lynch is one of the best in the game, ...... the things said in jest aren't always true

SHEMP

Sep 02, 2022

@ BASUTO:

"Brian"!

Maybe it was meant to be an anagram, like ONE BRAIN = Brian Eno.

JOHNNO

Sep 02, 2022

Nice to see Melb still using their plan B after 3/4 time...

Myk Aussie

Sep 02, 2022

Wow! The dogs sure are barking in 1st 2 games! Losing couldn't happen to a better mob re Tigers!!! Which ever Melbourne newspaper printed the story of Dusty Martin vid should be disgusted with themselves. What it was about 6 yrs ago but it WAS IN A STRIP CLUB and a little joke! And the middle aged men in Aussie media making out it was really bad WTF, really. Oh but now the wokes/PCers flogs will come after me because he disrespected a women. She was a striper & I'm not dissing striper either here. My opinion from afar, Canada!!!

Mike

Sep 03, 2022

Hard to find, those stripers.
Well camouflaged.

JuliansPostie

Sep 03, 2022

Especially if they hide among Collingwood supporters.

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