The only guide to the round that admits it’s completely unhelpful. What it lacks in insight, it makes up for with wild theories and detours onto unrelated topics.
It’s your unhelpful guide to Round Seven.
Friday
West Coast vs. Richmond (OS) 8:10pm Seven/Fox
All praise for the floating fixture, which gives the AFL the ability to schedule the big blockbusters on a Friday night!
They’ve really nailed this one; can a team that is barely competitive beat a side who probably won’t finals?
That’s the question I know every footy fan has been asking this week.
And who isn’t excited to see which players are going to play for West Coast?
It’s like pass the parcel, it’s a surprise what you’ll get, except unlike the modern version of pass the parcel, in the West Coast version no one wins.
With such a bad Friday night game, it’s interesting the TV rights are a big story this week.
It’s always good to hear what the TV networks want, a Friday game that starts way to late, a night Grand Final the majority of fans don’t want, and having Wayne Carey on television for some reason.
You never hear the AFL talking about what the fans want.
The argument is that the TV and streaming networks are the ones that hand over the billions of dollars not the fans.
But how do they get those billions of dollars? Through advertisers. And why do advertisers give the networks, money? To access fans.
Funny how that bit always gets left out of the debate. Without the fans, there is no money.
It’s why the field hockey TV rights aren’t a big point of discussion.
It might be worth the AFL and the TV networks thinking about the fans just a little bit, as annoying as they both find them.
Tigers to win.
Saturday
Geelong vs. Fremantle (GMHBA) 1:45pm Fox Footy
It’s hard to know which team will knock Geelong out of the finals this season, but Fremantle have put itself in the conversation based on their early form.
This isn’t a final however and is in Geelong, meaning the Cats are a real chance to win.
Matt Taberner and Sean Darcy are big outs for this, and yes, as promised I’ve learnt their names!
Unfortunately, knowing the names of players is a sure-fire way to ensure you’ll never be a Channel Seven commentator.
Patrick Dangerfield will miss again due to his injured calf but despite this, he’ll still be mentioned by the commentators more than some players who are on the field.
To be honest, this game has shaken me a bit. It made me realise I’m not providing you with the deep football insights you need.
This is because I read this sentence in another preview this week:
According to Champion Data numbers shown on AFL 360, the Dockers are ranked first in the competition at switching the ball yet 18th for moving the footy ‘down the line’.
I recognise most of the words in that sentence, but their meaning escapes me.
The only stats I have for you is two Geelong fans told me they don’t like Chris Scott this week, and the only Freo fan I spoke to reckons the Dockers are just setting her up for heartbreak.
Geelong to win.
Adelaide vs. Greater Western Sydney (AO) 2:10pm Fox Footy
The Giants terrible 1-5 start to the season has been met by stunned apathy in Sydney.
Not even the return of Toby Greene hasn’t instantly led to the Giants becoming a premiership threat, proving he’s not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy.
Perhaps the main reason the Giants are struggling is they are ranked something in the competition at switching the ball yet something else for moving the footy ‘down the line’.
Adelaide are having a great season, compared to their recent standards, although they lost Erin Phillips this week, prompting them to refer to Port Adelaide as an “expansion club” in a tweet.
I don’t know about you, put petty arguments between footy clubs online being written up as legitimate news stories is something I’m all for.
Remember when we cared about things like a global pandemic and being locked in our houses?
Caring about a tweet the Adelaide Crows sent out is what I’m here for.
Crows to win.
Melbourne vs. Hawthorn (MCG) 4:35pm Fox Footy
The minute the media started talking nonsense about Melbourne going through the season undefeated, I knew trouble was coming.
I mean, I know a reverse jinx when I see one.
So of course, here comes a bout of Covid, with Simon Goodwin to miss this game, and Luke Jackson, Kysaiah Pickett, Harrison Petty and Tom Sparrow all outs.
This is all very amusing when it happens to West Coast, but this is my team! What are the AFL doing about this?
Really, the fact AFL House hasn’t cured Covid is damning, just as they haven’t fixed the illicit drug problem in society.
Holding the AFL account for not fixing global problems is one of my favourite things to do.
We really must ask who benefits from the covid outbreak at Melbourne? The answer of course is Hawthorn.
Can we really rule out their involvement in this? There’s no evidence I’m aware of that clears them.
And if I asked you what club is most likely to conduct germ warfare, what would your answer be?
That’s right, after Carlton, it’s Hawthorn.
I’m tipping the Dees.
St Kilda vs. Port Adelaide (Cazalys) 7:25pm Seven/Fox
Port Adelaide are yet to defeat an AFL side this season and travelling into St Kilda’s heartland of Far North Queensland is another tough ask.
It’s perfect conditions in Cairns this Saturday for footy, with a temperature of 28 and the humidity getting down as low as 77%.
Port’s win in the WAFL has people talking about a turnaround, and by ‘people’, I mean a guy in the comments of an article I read this week.
Remember when the comments section of a footy article was the unhinged part? Now I find it’s often more sensible than a lot of the articles they’re commentating on.
A loss to St Kilda would certainly make finals a near impossibility, dare I say it, Port are already creeping into the ‘still mathematically possible’ zone.
And St Kilda are good. I mean, there’s always a sense with the Saints something could go wrong, like driving a Ford GT around a track, it can be fun, but there’s always a sense you’re about to spin out of control and the thing is going to maim you.
I’m tipping the Saints.
Carlton vs. North Melbourne (MS) 7:25pm Fox Footy
There’s been talk this week that North Melbourne might request a priority pick, something North denies.
They point out it’s only round seven. This is true, and there’s always a chance things will improve, but then, like this rash I’ve got, things can also get embarrassingly worse. To the point even your doctor can’t hide their shock.
But I digress.
A priority pick basically means the best players go to the worst clubs.
In many ways, it's like Tinder's algorithm, in which the best people are matched with the worst.
Carlton should win this, but then, it would be so on-brand that after a good start, followed by some disappointing performances, they lost this one.
I’m tipping the Blues because that certainly couldn’t happen, right Blues fans? Right?
Sunday
Collingwood vs. Gold Coast (MCG) 1:10pm Fox Footy
There’s been a lot of debate this week (which means a couple of tweets and someone talking about it on radio) about changing the centre bounces.
This was in response to Brodie Grundy suffering a PCL injury, putting him on the sidelines for months.
There’s even been talk of having a basketball-style jump ball, but is this safe enough?
There’s a sensible and simple solution to this, both ruckmen must wear those padded sumo suits.
Then, they can run into each other as much as they want, safe from injury, and watching people in those things is always amusing.
Now, I know it will be hard to get to the ruck contest around the ground in these things, which is where each team has a forklift that scoops up the ruckman and posits them at the next contest.
Forklifts are so safe kids can drive them and there’s bound to be a sponsorship opportunity in there.
How I’m not the favourite to be the next AFL CEO is beyond me.
Collingwood to win.
Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon (MS) 3:20pm Seven/Fox
This is two disappointing Victorian sides playing each other, so what the AFL call a ‘blockbuster’.
The weird thing about Essendon is their supporters are overly defensive, but their defence is not.
They’ve had more points kicked against them than any other team except North Melbourne.
Are the Bombers considering requesting a priority pick? It can’t hurt, but do we really want to consign a young kid to never winning a final?
The Bulldogs lost to the Crows last week, which sort of tells you everything you need to know.
The Doggies seem to have got Melbourne’s premiership hangover, which is annoying, like being the designated driver for someone who got really drunk and you end up with the hangover.
I’m tipping the Doggies.
Sydney vs. Brisbane (SCG) 4:40pm Fox Footy
Finally, we get a game that should tell us a bit about the Premiership race so it’s the twilight game on a Sunday. The floating fixture works again!
The Swans look like getting back Tom Papley, which is more than a bit handy, after coming off an impressive win against the Hawks.
John Longmire was angry this week about the footage of Paddy McCartin in the locker room after his concussion.
But who doesn’t want to see AFL players injured and at their lowest point? What’s that? No one?
Here’s a novel thought, why not show what’s happening on the field? Fans seem to really like that, but I know that’s not what drives footy television coverage.
As for Brisbane, this is a true test, at the SCG, against a top side.
It’s hard to win at the SCG, as it’s much smaller than a lot of other AFL grounds.
To put it in perspective, you could put three SCGs in the forward fifty of the MCG.
That’s just a fact. I’ve conducted my own research on this issue.
I’m tipping the Swans.
You can help support me in producing this ridiculous nonsense I churn out on a regular basis. Find out more here: https://titusoreily.com/support-titus
COMMENTS
John Lawrence
Apr 29, 2022
Genius again, not you the writer
The Cardtrader
Apr 29, 2022
Actually I would probs watch field hockey too. Make it happen AFLFH and AFLWFH
Tom Mannion
Apr 29, 2022
Get rid of the bounce in the centre whoever wins the toss gets first kick out of the centre then to be fair if a goal is scored the opposition gets to kick it out of the centre. Why haven't the AFL thought of that as a way to further ruin the game.
Meredith
Apr 29, 2022
Another nasty dig at Adelaide. Port is an expansion club. What’s your point. You even brought up the camp last week. Get over it.
Matt
Apr 29, 2022
In superb form today Titus, well done.
Ed
Apr 29, 2022
You're missing a word in your West Coast v Richmond analysis (can i call it that?), second line. I'd call it an error, but then that's this whole blog, right?
ALBERTON LAD
Apr 29, 2022
“Fans defence online is inversely proportional to a team’s in game defence”? What does Champion Data say about that? Nothing! Leading AFL key game performance and scheduling analysis again, Titus. It’s why I hang on your every word.
Davo
Apr 29, 2022
Once again a golden line and it’s a Python quote to boot -Toby Greene hasn’t instantly led to the Giants becoming a premiership threat, proving he’s not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy. well done and can I say this comedy lark suits you sir
Circus
Apr 29, 2022
Titus, emerging scientific evidence suggests you are not cursed, nor are responsible for a curse. Early days, but the data indicates your tipping the Saints to win hasn't destroyed the our season. Yet. But we're watching. Sportsbet has odds of $1.75 of you continuing to be correct, which are very impressive numbers if I knew what that stuff means.
Circus
Apr 29, 2022
Consistent with this bloggy thing a grammatical error. Please mentally delete the third "the."
Glen
Apr 29, 2022
Brilliant, one of your best
Carol Sullivan
Apr 29, 2022
Hopefully the Dockers can stop Tom and Jerry from scoring, we have a pretty good back 6 💙⚓️
Brad
Apr 29, 2022
I read during the week that the key to beating Geelong at Kardinia Park was something about playing left handed and I just assumed you had written it. Careful Titus....there are others moving in on your analytic territory!!
Myshort1
Apr 29, 2022
It’s déjà vu all over again. Richmond playing the unknown kids from West coast. Michael Roach will kick another 10 tonight.
FULL MOON OVER NUNAWADING
Apr 29, 2022
@@ It’s hard to know which team will knock Geelong out of the finals this season, but Fremantle have put itself in the conversation based on their early form. @@
It sure have!
The g train
Apr 29, 2022
Titus—don’t get hung up on cold statistics. You of all people should know that’s not what footy (and the subset of footy—life) is about. Freo may be 1st in some meaningless stat, and 18th in another. We just know they’re playing damn good footy this season. This might seem like irrational emotional idiocy based on recent seasons, but it’s just the truth. Likewise, you may not be the favourite to be the new CEO of the AFL. But irrational emotional idiocy suggests you just might be. And that trumps sound reasoning every time.
The AFL and TV networks despising the fans is like how AFL clubs despise their members.
Pope Paul VII
Apr 29, 2022
Toby is actually the messiah, like Jeezus he won't win a premiership either.
Son of plugger
Apr 29, 2022
To all the great scholars here of the English language: what’s the difference between a jinx and a reverse jinx? A jinx is something that brings bad luck? Similar to a curse? So a reverse jinx is something that brings good luck? Or at least reverses the curse? Have been banging my head against a brick wall for a few hours now, trying to work out what Titus meant. My head really hurts. So when Titus this season selects StK to win, they win. Every previous season when he selected StK to win, they lost. Every single time. So which is the jinx effect and which is the reverse jinx? Or is selecting StK to win and then they do—is that something else entirely? I can’t take it anymore…
Kafka’s Ghost
Apr 29, 2022
The AFL listen to what fans want? That’s up there with billionaires paying tax in the realms of “would be great, but it ain’t going to happen” stakes.
To which I give you the crowd-killing blast of infernal, distorted music after goals. The team kicks a goal, everyone starts cheering and chanting, the music starts and everyone stops cheering and puts their fingers in their ears. Way to kill organic crowd involvement in the game, AFL!!
Tilla
Apr 29, 2022
I’m a Saints fan and just got Covid, heading down to Dees training right now to hug every one of them!
Running Dog
Apr 29, 2022
Son of Plugger, you should give up all that stuff about jinxes. I used to be superstitious too, but in the end it brought me too much bad luck. And speaking of brick walls, once your back is against one you just have to turn around and fight.
Catta
Apr 29, 2022
Well done Titus, some good stuff this week.
Particularly when you consider the “ thoroughly unhelpful guides’ have been ranked 18th this season in satirical footy blogs but your “knee jerk reactions’ have the highest humour rating of any Southern Hemisphere ball related code reviews.
Your summaries are one of the few things I still chuckle out loud too……them and when nanna falls over after a session at bingo.
fan of godra
Apr 29, 2022
Sorry Titus, I have always found the comments here more erudite, pithy, insightful and grammatically correct. But you do do humour ok!
Con Cushion
Apr 29, 2022
Turn it up Titus ..... I apologise, it's time I need to Turn it Up! You, using a term like algorithm, no matter the context, jolts me into thinking, "Titus knows his Sh*t". Con.
Ross
Apr 29, 2022
Tipping Sydney so readily? Can’t see them getting over Brissy easily. Going to be a cracking game. My tip Brissy in a close one (maybe hahaha)
Grand Final History
Apr 29, 2022
Speaking of curses is it too soon to call the Barty Curse? Richmond hasn't won a premiership since Ash Barty presented the trophy in Brisbane back in 2020!
stoney33
Apr 29, 2022
BIG FELLA last week i mentioned how the AFL were trying to bring the dees back to the field by forcing players to sit out games.Now tonight i hear they have thought yeah nah 4 is not enough so make the hyphen sit out as well.I mean by the time we get to round 10 we may have to get the little league kids to have a run to give a team a better chance to knock off the dees.At the moment i am watching a game from THE BOO FACTORY between the sparrows and the tigers.God what a shit game this is and i fear there may be many records broken by the tiges over the said sparrows.I might vacuum the carpet or mop the floor to help the injured Mrs out instead of watching this crap.And while i am on it this looks more like a DROWNING than a floating fixture.GO DEES
Elly
Apr 29, 2022
Here’s a solution to the centre circle bounce.
Given the current “Stand” rule, just like netball, the ruckman could take it in turns to kick the ball out of the circle, just like the centre players in netball. To make it interesting, they have to kick into the opposition’s end and make their half backs return it to their own forward 50.
No PCL injuries.
MG
Apr 29, 2022
Elly, I thought you were going to suggest that one stands and the other kicks it into them.
Dave
Apr 29, 2022
great article Titus - i especially enjoyed the Toby Green Monty Python bit
Merlin's Mother
Apr 29, 2022
Titus, I read this "But how do they get those billions of dollars? Through advertisers. And why do advertisers give the networks, money? To access fans." and thought hang on a minute - this doesn't add up (and seriously I did ok at General Mathematics at school ....... just saying). I dunno - but the majority of the adverts during the footy are about gambling??? So they are not trying to reach ACTUAL FOOTY FANS - they are trying to reach gambling fans??? (Oh - and the odd person who goes to Bunnings 'cos our Tyla Hanks is a legend!!! Make no mistake).
I'm CONfused - or is it that we have all been CONned??????
I Dunno - it's late and like a lot of little old ladies I ought to be in bed.
Merlin's Mother
Apr 29, 2022
I read your preview of the Dees match - then I read the Hawks preview of the same match (headed "Bram is back!"). I am CONfused - or am I CONned again. Who is this Bram?? Turns out he is the bloke on the interchange bench?? I'd never heard (HIRD) of him and was wondering what kind of games were being played here?? I dunno - if I was a gambling person, who the hell would I bet on here??
Anyhoo, I always look forward to our games against the Hawks, because we still love our former speedster Sam Frost, and look forward to whom ever he takes on as our Full Forward (likely Ben Brown - but in these COVID19 days who knows). Sam is not only super fast, he is super firey and we love that about him. Funny that he is up against our super cool Ben Brown (though hold that thought there are still some hours until the bounce of the ball).
Hoping that all involved in this clash remain healthy - if not uninfected. Welcoming back Jake "Milkshake" who is one of our many hard many and we are all so pleased to see him back at the oval office.
As a certain person on The Front Bar would say "I'm betting"...............that if everyone involved in the AFL (including officials) goes down with COVID19 - you could send the camera crew out to film Aus Kick and there would be a massive television audience and even those poor sods who would bet on a fly crawling up the wall would have a ball doing over the bookies on which little kid kicked the first goal, and which little kid decked the other little kid first....... just saying.
Merlin's Mother
Apr 29, 2022
Sorry, one last larip. Like others, I watched the Tiges flog the Eagles, and was sad all around. But loved the young Rioli (Maurice Jr.) kicking three goals and Josh Kennedy kicking his 700th.
Question for the pundits : If all of the members of the Rioli family (ladies and gents of any particular generation) were to play The All Australian Squad (of the same generation - and trust me the R's could field a worthy side in any decade) - who would you lay your hard earned on?? I reckon the Rioli's would win that hands down!!
Forget about State v. State, and Mate v. Mate - back the Rioli's in to win any competition you like to think of.
In fact why isn't the flag named after them?? Rioli's Rule!
God I hope I spelled there names correctly - though if I haven't I am sure someone will point that out.
Sheldon Wiebe
Apr 29, 2022
After an out of form effort last week, Titus is back with a killer effort just now (doesn't hurt that he knows when to crib from the best - Monty Python!). Great stuff!
Kangas
Apr 30, 2022
Yes Titus after a poor showing last week you have responded with effort and it shows. Unlike the Roos perhaps you could head down to training one day and address them on the importance of effort.
saint peter
Apr 30, 2022
Totally agree with your stats from champion data (bit of an overstatement the name). Anyway they are masters at producing stats that have less meaning than the UAP & Oner Nation together.